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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."